She’s got too many negatives, not for me, but for too many people. So I think she’s better off on the outside looking in.”This seems to be a common thread among the people that they spoke to. I don't think that anyone that pays attention to politics doubt the fact that Palin could win the republican nomination next summer, the question really is can she win over the independents in order to win a general election? While her Sarah Palin's Alaska on TLC broke viewing records for the network, the number who watched was about 5 million. Not a number that gives one pause to think that many people in the middle were watching.
The reality remains that the independents hold all the cards in elections. You can get the base behind a candidate for each party, but unless that candidate is bringing in the middle a general election is out of reach. One of the more recent polls is showing her negatives above 50% going as far back as July. The number is actually increasing not decreasing.
We have all seen the videos that show Obama voters from 2 years ago believing that Palin said things that were actually part of Tina Fey's SNL skits. Many of those misconceptions still have not been cleared up. There are also some other realities that must be taken into consideration. Pro life women are much more villified than pro life men. Of course this isn't fair, but it is a political reality. Abortion is used as a wedge issue, especially in national elections.
Gov. Palin's resignation is also another issue that she will have to overcome. While it cannot be denied that the ethics issues lawsuits were a strain on both the State of Alaska and Gov. Palin personally. There are people who will continue to look at that decision from another point of view; quitter.
Another issue that Palin is going to have to deal with is her endorsement choices; John McCain is understandable due to a sense of loyalty. I personally question that loyalty since the McCain family has not exactly been very loyal to her. It seems to me that the Senator used her when he was facing a tough primary bid, and now has gone back to his usual "Oh, I don't know" answers when he is asked if he would support her presidental run. Answering that question this far out shouldn't be as hard for him as it seems to be. She also did another pick that made conservatives question her; Carly Fiorina over the much more conservative Chuck Devore. Palin was absolutely correct that Devore had no chance at winning a statewide election in California, but the image was planted in the minds of some. Her choice of Governor in Iowa is another:
In Carley’s case, though she said she “respects and admires” Palin, she said she was “disappointed” by one of Palin’s few conventional political moves: her endorsement of Iowa’s governor-elect, Jim Branstad, a Republican who is considered insufficiently conservative by many in the grassroots.As it stands at the moment Palin would not win the Iowa Caucuses, she would come in second by Huckabee. Now, we have no idea if either are actually running at this point, but she has been damaged in Iowa, the first caucus state which helps build momentum for candidates moving forward.
“I really respected her until she endorsed Terry Branstad,” Carley said. “I think she was positioning herself politically.”
Jim Carley, her husband, chimed in: “A lot of Iowans feel that way. She took a big nosedive.”
Palin “is a fantastic organizer for the conservative movement — she is pitch perfect on the stump.”
“I would hope she keeps doing that through the 2012 cycle. There are other, better positioned, more qualified candidates the Republican Party could nominate,”
It seems that Tea Party members are keeping their eye on the prize; getting Obama out of office. A candidate that will have a difficult time winning that election is not option.